top of page
Zdjęcie autoraJarosław Jamka

Awaiting February 2024 employment data

The labor market is the key to rate cuts, lower inflation, and a bull market at the long end of the UST curve. On Friday we will get the data for February, but earlier on Wednesday we will get some leading labor data in the JOLTS report (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey).


What to look for? Quit rate for the Total Private is of particular interest. The quit rate is a proxy of worker bargaining power. It can be treated as a leading indicator of wage inflation - see Figure 1.



Quit rate is the number of voluntary departures from work in a given month to the total number of employees. The highest quit rate is currently in the Leisure and Hospitality industry (4.3%), and the lowest... in the Government sector (0.8%).


Over the last 6 months, the number of private jobs in the US increased by 1,191,000 (total private, see Figure 2). Of this:

557 thousand in Private education and health services,

195 thousand in Leisure and hospitality,

116 thousand in Construction, and

112 thousand in Professional and business services.



The JOLTS report also provides data on Job Openings. If the vacancy rate falls, it means less employment growth in the future. Vacancy rate is the number of job openings to the number of employees.


Figure 3 and 4 show the vacancy rates for Total Private, Private education and health services, Leisure and hospitality, Construction and Professional and business services.


In recent months, only in the case of Leisure and hospitality there has been a significant decline in vacancy rate - this may indicate a further relatively strong employment growth in the coming months... let's see what data we get on Wednesday…




17 wyświetleń0 komentarzy

Ostatnie posty

Zobacz wszystkie

Comentários


bottom of page