Summer pain trade ? US Dollar !

According to BofA's Michael Hartnett:

“Price & Positioning say long US dollar is summer pain trade, especially since "short dollar" is the top trade reco (recommendation) at Goldman, Morgan Stanley, DB and JPM.”

One can only recall Bob Farrell’s rule 9: “When all the experts and forecasts agree – something else is going to happen.”

What’s the pain trade? According to AI’s Copitol:

“A pain trade refers to a market movement that causes significant losses for a large group of investors, often because they were positioned in the same direction and the market unexpectedly moves against them. It typically occurs when a popular asset class or widely followed investing strategy takes a sudden turn, catching most investors off guard.”

Figure 1 shows the dislocation of US dollar and 10Y yield, and Figure 2 shows the dislocation of US dollar and S&P500.