Elon Musk on the earnings call: “I know people have said, "Well, Elon, the boy who cried like a wolf like several times." But I'm telling you, there's a damn wolf this time and you can drive it. In fact, it could drive you. It's a self-driving wolf”.
Analysts have a problem with Tesla's valuation, which is so high that Tesla cannot be classified as a car manufacturer.. but it is easier to classify it as an AI company… or you can also compare Tesla to Bitcoin.. and Tesla has delivered a higher rate of return than Bitcoin counting from Trump's election victory – see Figure 1.

Besides, Tesla is also investing in Bitcoin.. and it had a significant impact on the Q4 earnings… Vaibhav Taneja, CFO: “the net income in Q4 was impacted by a $600 million mark-to-market benefit from Bitcoin due to the adoption of a new accounting standard for digital assets”.
The company's Q4 2024 results were weak, but investors value optimistic prospects more, especially when Elon himself talks about them, and they concern FSD and the humanoid Optimus …
Elon Musk: "I see a path of Tesla being the most valuable company in the world by far. (...) there is a path where Tesla is worth more than the next top five companies combined. (...) And that is overwhelmingly due to autonomous vehicles and autonomous humanoid robots. (...) Optimus has the potential to be north of $10 trillion in revenue."
Positives for Tesla in 2025:
1) Robotaxi service to start in Austin in June 2025,
2) Low-cost model to start production in H1 2025,
3) Energy storage deployments to grow at least 50% in 2025 - see Figure 2.

But there is a whole list of risks:
1) Risk of low growth in total deliveries (previously Elon spoke of a 20-30% increase in 2025, and now only about a "return to growth" in 2025) - see Figure 3,
2) Further decline in margins (Figure 4), and lower sales prices,
3) Possible withdrawal of US subsidies for EVs (JPM estimates that this could even result in a loss of around 40% of 2024 Tesla profits),
4) and anything that could negatively affect investor sentiment as Tesla's valuation is really high..


Figure 5 shows total revenues and Figure 6 the automotive segment revenues.



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