8-Aug-2026. SpaceX podał solidne wyniki finansowe za Q2 2026 i jednocześnie powyżej oczekiwań Wall Street. Wyniki za Q2 2026: - Revenue $7.8 billion, estimate $6.81 bilion- Adjusted Ebitda $3.5 billion, estimate $2 bilion - AI segment total revenue $2.56 billion, estimate $2.08 bilion - AI segment operating loss $1.26 billion, estimate loss $2.39 bilion - Space segment net sales $962 million, estimate $873.7 million - Space segment adjusted EBITDA loss $205 million, estimate loss $409.9 milion - Connectivity segment revenue $4.29 billion, estimate $3.88 billion - Connectivity segment adjusted EBITDA $2.60 billion, estimate $2.41 bilion - Capital expenditure $18.37 billion, estimate $18.58 bilion - Reached 12.0 million Starlink Subscribers as of the end of Q2 2026, doubling year-over-year and up 1.7million sequentially, while maintaining ARPU at $66, in line with Q1 2026 - AI revenues were up 213% sequentially and 247% year-over-year to $2.6 billion, primarily driven by an increase in AI solutions and infrastructure revenues from new Cloud Service Agreements. Ale nie tyle dobre wyniki za Q2 były kluczowe co plany biznesowego dotyczące 3 segmentów działalności, które spółka przedstawiła podczas earnings call. W wyniku czego po 3 dniach od publikacji wyników obecny konsensus Wall Street jest zdecydowanie powyżej np. tego z 20 czerwca br. (patrz wykres obok). I tak analitycy oczekują teraz: - przychodów w Q3 2026 w wysokości $12.7bln (oczekiwali 20 czerwca $10.13bln), - przychodów w Q4 2026 w wysokości $18.71bln (oczekiwali 20 czerwca $11.45bln). W komentarzu z 20 czerwca br. tak pisałem o SpaceX: „Tylko z segmentem AI SpaceX jest jeden problem… to nie jest zyskowny biznes ! Analitycy z Wall Street mogą relatywnie w łatwy sposób prognozować segment AI SpaceX.. w oparciu o dokładne dane ogłoszonych kontraktów długoterminowych. Tabela przedstawia aktualny konsensus Wall Street dla segmentu działalności AI." - patrz druga tabela. Natomiast trzecia tabela przedstawia konsensus z 7 sierpnia 2026. Zatem teraz SpaceX wyjdzie na dodatni zysk operacyjny w segmencie AI już dwa lata wcześniej (już w 2027 roku zamiast w 2029)! W 2027 roku wygeneruje przychody AI rzędu $60mld (zamiast $34mld). A w 2031 roku przychody AI wyniosą $522 mld ! W czerwcu analitycy oczekiwali jedynie $ 152 mld ! W wyniku takiego wzrostu oczekiwań, roczna dynamika przychodów osiągnie najwyższą wartość w Q1 2027 na poziomie +350%. Kolejny wykres pokazuje roczne przychody SpaceX za lata 2024-2027. Oczywiście druga połowa 2026 i 2027 to oczekiwania Wall Street. Na wykresie pokazuje jak te oczekiwania Wall Street zmieniły się pomiędzy 20 czerwca br. a 7 sierpnia 2026. Najwyższą kontrybucje do wzrostu przychodów wykazuje segment AI, a w drugiej kolejności segment Connectivity (Starlink). Elon Musk, CEO and Chief Engineer, podsumowanie gdzie jest obecnie SpaceX: „We're making great progress developing a fully and rapidly reusable reliable rocket with Starship. We're connecting millions more people globally across 170 markets with fast, reliable Starlink internet. We're building AI compute capacity at scale faster than anyone else, we believe. We're significantly improving our AI models, most notably with the release of Grok 4.5 last month.” Docelowo Starship będzie wynosił 1 mln ton masy na orbitę, Elon Musk: „I think perhaps describing it in terms of tonnage to orbit is a good way to appreciate the magnitude of the impact Starship will have on the future of civilization. Right now we deliver, call it, roughly 2,500 tons a year to orbit via Falcon. This is a big number by normal standards. The rest of the world, I think, delivers around 300 tons. We deliver 80%-90% of total Earth mass to orbit per year with Falcon. With Starship, our aspirations, and I think we will achieve these aspirations, are to deliver well over 1 million tons to orbit per year, and probably ultimately 10 million tons per year.” W przypadku Starlinka najważniejsza okazuje się być 3-cia wersja satelity i oczekiwania na zwiększenie ilości satelitów wynoszonych na orbitę, Elon: „Starlink V3 satellite is about an order of magnitude more capable than the Starlink V2 satellite, which was already a very capable satellite. We expect to launch about an order of magnitude more Starlink V3 satellites. That would mean a roughly two order of magnitude increase in the delivered bandwidth.” Elon na temat planów związanych z segmentem AI (i dlaczego kurs Nvidia wzrósł po takiej informacji): „We expect to end this year with over two gigawatts of compute. Probably our cumulative compute online by the end of next year will be several times higher. It may, let's say, be closer to 10 GW of compute than 5 GW of compute, as a way to think about it. Going forward, we've decided to build exclusively on Nvidia, because we think the Vera Rubin architecture is the best architecture. (…) With respect to the Starmind AI satellite, which will be essentially an optimized Vera Rubin NVL72 computer. This is not some sort of far future distant thing. We expect to start launching this next year.” Gwynne Shotwell, President and COO, na temat Starlinka: „During the second quarter, we added net more than 1.7 million Starlink subscribers globally, consumer. This reflects our best quarter of new customers to date, an increase from the 1.4 million we added during the first quarter. We achieved this by holding ARPU, which is the average revenue per user, stable at $66 per month compared to the first quarter. (…) As of June 30th, our constellation of operational Starlink broadband and mobile satellites in orbit grew to roughly 10,200, with our 9,600 broadband satellites delivering roughly 800 terabits per second of total downlink capacity. Following a successful speed run test of the V3 Starlink satellites on the most recent Starship launch, during which we connected every satellite through every laser link, we intend to deploy V3 satellites into the constellation for operational use on the upcoming Starship missions.” Bret Johnsen, CFO, na temat ilości mocy obliczeniowej SPaceX: „We ended the second quarter with 1.4 GW of nameplate compute up from one gigawatt in Q1 and 400 MW a year earlier. We expect to end this year at over two gigawatts of compute capacity.”… i na temat CAPEX-u: „Total company capital expenditures in the second quarter were approximately $18.4 billion, of which roughly $15.8 billion supported AI compute infrastructure (…) We plan to continue to invest aggressively in the three areas we believe generate the highest long-term returns: Starship development and production scale, next generation Starlink broadband and mobile constellations, and AI compute infrastructure. Across all three of these investments, we remain focused on capital efficiency, return on investment, and preservation of a strong investment-grade balance sheet.” I chyba najważniejsza informacja z earnings call na temat okresu zwrotu (payback period) w przypadku inwestycji w moc obliczeniową, Bret Johnsen, CFO: „We completed our initial public offering, raising approximately $85.7 billion in net proceeds, and followed that with a $25 billion inaugural investment-grade senior notes offering that was partially used to repay our $20 billion bridge loan. The senior notes were issued across five tranches with a weighted average interest rate of 5.855% and average maturity of 11.7 years. We ended the quarter with $100 billion of cash equivalents in marketable securities, and $47.5 billion in backlog. Looking ahead, we continue to see robust demand in all three of our business segments, but in particular in our cloud services arrangements. We see increasingly favorable economics with each agreement we sign, and as Elon mentioned, we expect the supply-demand imbalance in the compute market to continue. The current economics have translated into a less than one-year payback on our new capital deployments for compute. For example, in the first few weeks of the third quarter, we've already contracted an additional $6.7 billion of cloud services revenue over a six-month period that begins ramping starting in October of this year. We believe this puts us on a trajectory, including contribution from Cursor, to reach $100 billion of ARR, or annualized revenue run rate, by the end of this year, based on our expected revenue in the month of December of this year. ” Elon na temat kiedy SpaceX może osiągnąć $1000 mld przychodów…: „we are expecting to reach $100 billion+ ARR in December of this year. It's probably also worth mentioning that our internal projections for reaching $1 trillion in revenue, not ARR, but revenue, have moved up from 2031 to 2030. Prior to the IPO, the financial projections we had were reaching $1 trillion in revenue in 2031. We now expect that to be in 2030. There's a non-zero chance of that being in 2029.” Elon: „To be clear, the $100 billion ARR in December is not a question mark. That's what we'd achieve if we basically did nothing. I think it may be higher than that. It probably will be higher than that. (…) we do expect a very rapid increase in revenue from Starlink communications from the V3 satellite. Like I said, we're more than 10x the capability of the V2 satellite, and we'll be launching 10 times as many, and we have the direct-to-cell constellation going up as well. Some of you were looking at the historical growth of Starlink based on V2, but we have a step change, a massive step change happening with the V3 satellite.” Gwynne Shotwell, President and COO, na temat rozwoju Starlinka, co przy wykorzystaniu pasma częstotliwości 65MHz, które SpaceX uzyskał kupując operatora naziemnego EchoStar.. Do czego należy dodać większą liczbę satelitów.. i to już w przyszłym roku.. łącznie daje to prawie „100x better than what we've got right now”: „We're going to start flying the next generation Starlink mobile satellite. It's confusing. It's actually the second version, as opposed to the V3, which is the next generation broadband satellite. We're going to start flying those next year. Currently, the system that we're operating uses about five megahertz of bandwidth, and we operate that through local telco providers. We have 65 MHz of bandwidth available to us through the EchoStar spectrum, which gives massive increase in capability. Another way to look at it is we will also probably 10x the number of satellites. Simplifying, you could look at the Starlink mobile leveraging the next generation satellite and the EchoStar spectrum as being 100x better, 10x10 better than what we've got right now. It's a pretty decent service.” I w temacie lądowania na księżycu… ala „boots on the ground”: Gwynne Shotwell, President and COO: „As far as the milestones go, propellant transfer in orbit is critical to both our internal SpaceX as well as our HLS ambitions. Artemis III mission is next year. That's where we will dock with the Orion spacecraft. We will follow that up with a direct to lunar cargo mission, uncrewed. We want to put boots on the ground, boots on the moon in 2028.”