Try…. 75% in 2014-2016, or
60% in 1997-1998, or
46% in 2021-2022. See Figure 1.
OPEC+ last week announced positive news for oil market about lower (than market expectations) supply in the near future… just delaying the start of planned output hikes to April 2025 and extending production cuts until 31-Dec-2026. Despite this, the price of WTI oil has fallen by about 4% in the last 3 days…
OPEC+ voluntary amount of 2.2mln BPD will be returned to the market over 18 months from April 2025 till September 2026 (vs prev. 12 months from January 2025; vs exp. 12 months from April 2025) – see Figure 2. All in all, exiting all these production cuts is practically impossible… without a significant drop in the price of oil.. we will see if the April 2025 deadline for starting to increase production will be met.. that may be doubtful..
In such a situation, Saudi Arabia (KSA) is in an even worse situation… because its share of the oil production market is the lowest in 30 years – see Figure 3. Will KSA dare to reach an agreement with Trump on returning its production to the market? This could mean oil prices even below $50. According to the announced OPEC+ plan, it will take 18 months (from April 2025 to September 2026) for KSA to increase production by 1 million bbl.
Figure 4 shows the market share of Russia, the US and KSA.
Figure 5 shows the market share of Russia alone, and
Figure 6 shows the market share of the US.
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