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Zdjęcie autoraJarosław Jamka

Initial Claims Deep Dive

Initial Claims is one of the best leading indicators on the US labor market. The rapidly rising number of insurance claims (both initial and continued) indicates an imminent recession. To be more certain, we can validate the Initial Claims signal with other data series such as:


1) Continued Claims,

2) Unemployment Rate (monthly), or

3) Challenger Job Cut Announcements (monthly).


Generally, all these series confirm the current signal from Initial Claims: we are above the lows of the cycle (the lowest level of Initial Claims was 182k in September 2022), but still too low to talk about a more reliable signal on entering a recession.


Figure 1 shows how Initial Claims rhymes with Challenger Job Cut Announcements, Figure 2 shows the same but zoomed in. The increase in the announced Job Cuts in January to the level of 82.3k confirms the increase in Initial Claims from the level of 189k (January 13) to 227k (January 27), and the latest data is 218k (February 3). Figure 3 shows Initial and Continued Claims and the unemployment rate in one chart.





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