GDP growth is negatively affected not only by population decline, but also by population aging. Why is the aging population also important? Older people simply spend less.
This is clearly visible in the data on American consumer spending by age - see Figure 1. Consumers aged 50 spend, on average, 96% more than those aged under 25. Similarly, consumers over the age of 75 spend over 40% less than those aged 50. These are actual data for 2022.
The worst situation is when the share of older people in the total population increases and the share of people aged 25-50 decreases. According to the UN projection, Poland and China will be in the worst situation in this respect. See Figure 2 and 3.
India, the USA and France are in the best position. In France, the share of people aged 25-49 will even increase by 2050 (but it is the only such country). See Figure 4, 5 and 6.
The remaining countries fall in the middle, by 2050 the increase in the share of people over 65 will be in percentage points:
- in Europe +8.01pp, see Figure 7
- in Germany +7.09pp, see Figure 8
- in Spain +14.9pp, see Figure 9
- in Japan +7.7pp, see Figure 10
- in Italy +12.2pp, see Figure 11
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