Nvidia will release earnings on May 22 after the close of trading. This may be the second most important event in May (after the publication of the US CPI for April on May 15).
Wall Street expects revenues to increase in Q1 2025 (quarter ending April 30, 2024) to $24.07 billion (which means +235% YoY, or +$16.88 billion).
Let's check how the revenue consensus has changed recently. See Figure 1.
While analysts significantly increased their estimates immediately after the publication of results for Q42024 (quarter ending January 31, 2024), in the next two months (from February 24 to April 19) the consensus increased only by +0.4% to +4.8 % - see the lower table in Figure 1.
The last change between April 19 and May 8 is cosmetic.
As a reminder, NVIDIA's outlook for the first quarter of fiscal 2025 with regards to revenue is $24.0 billion, plus or minus 2%. In previous quarters, the company easily beat its guidance. So by how much does a company have to beat its own outlook for the stock price to react positively this time?
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