Roaring 20's or Trump 2.0?

2023 and 2024 are truly exceptional years! Why?

In 2023 S&P500 was up 24.33%.

In 2024, so far so good.. +25.70%.

However, the last time the S&P500 was up over 20% two years in a row was in 1998. And before that... we have to go all the way back to 1955!

Aside from the exceptional 1990's.. S&P500 also achieved such high returns twice in the 1920's... during the Roaring 20's! See Figure 1.

Trump 2.0 - Why is 2024 similar to 2019?

Trump was also president in 2019. In 2019, Powell started a cycle of interest rate cuts. On November 8, 2019, the S&P500 was up 23.39% year to date.

On November 8, 2024, the S&P500 is up +25.70% YTD - see Figure 2.

In 2019, the S&P500 closed the year up +28.88% and continued to rise through February 19, 2020.