Second wave of the AI bull market?

The first wave of the AI bull market started immediately after the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022. From the October 2022 trough to July 10, 2024, the SOX index rose by 169% (the S&P 500 was up only 57.5% over the same period), which can be defined as the first wave of the AI bull market. Since July 2024, the SOX index has been in a correction and has not yet reached a new all-time high.

Did the second wave of the AI bull market begin with the lows in April this year? Very strong financial results for Q1 and Q2 2025 from AI-related companies — including optimism from their management teams regarding AI demand and AI prospects — have certainly contributed to the rise in tech stocks.

Figure 1 shows the returns of tech companies from April 2 this year (Liberation Day) to July 18 this year. For example:

Oracle: +68%

Broadcom: +65%

Nvidia: +56%

Over the same period, the SOX index (representing the 30 largest global semiconductor manufacturers) rose by +33%, the Nasdaq 100 by +18%, and the S&P 500 by only +7%.

Table 1 shows returns over three different time horizons.