Another way to look at a slowing labor market is to check how many monthly changes in employment are below 100k. Figure 1 shows when the monthly change was below 100k (or, to be precise, below 0.063% of monthly change - so that historical numbers are comparable to today's absolute employment level).
Indeed, the July 2024 reading (after revisions) shows the first print below 100k since December 2020. Should we be worried? Figures 2 and 3 show that, for example, there were more such readings in 2018 and 2019. Especially since July 2018, the monthly variability of the data has increased.. indicating that one-month data can be misleading… e.g.:
January 2019: +258k
February 2019: +5k
March 2019: +227k
April 2019: +308k
May 2019: +38k
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