This is not the first time in recent years that gold has tried to permanently break above the $2,100 level. Will it work this time?
The Gold certainly has a lot of catching up to do. This time the situation is more favorable because (1) gold has significantly lagged behind the AI and Bitcoin booms, and (2) we are getting closer to the first rate cut by the FED, which has historically led to gold's bull market. These are just the two most important points, yet the gold bulls can easily cite a long list of arguments why we are going to have a real bull market here.
Figure 1 shows the gold price since the last rate hike by the Fed (last 3 cycles). Additionally, on the chart I marked the moment of the first rate cut and the period of recession (bold line) for each of the three historical cycles.
Figure 2 shows the bull markets since 1969, and Figure 3 shows the gold price since 2008 in detail.
Interestingly, in real terms the price of gold has not yet broken the peak from 1980 (Figure 4).
But the "first bull market" in gold prices took place in 1933-1934 (+69%), but only the US government participated (Figure 5).
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