top of page

Trump’s Goldilocks ?

Zdjęcie autora: Jarosław JamkaJarosław Jamka

Over the past two weeks, the market has come to understand that Trump’s aggressive campaign policy announcements will not be as aggressive in real life… in other words, it looks more like a “soft Trump” version – meaning a shift towards the Goldilocks zone, as shown on the EUR/USD chart – see Figure 1.



I would rather not count on a repeat of 2017 and a rapid weakening of the dollar, because then we were dealing with a classic global reflation trade – see Figure 2 – and Trump introduced tariffs only on January 22, 2018 and March 1, 2018 – and only then did the markets react to it. Over the next two years, the dollar only strengthened – see Figure 3.




And what is it like today? My working base-case is a Trump’s goldilocks scenario (Q1-Q2 2025) with a tendency for the dollar to strengthen towards parity (Q3-Q4 2025). Of course, markets will be pricing in (sometimes up, sometimes down) what Trump will say in terms of implementing the pro-growth elements of his policy, or the anti-growth elements – so we are going to have a sort of a seesaw, but rather within the range of goldilocks.



15 wyświetleń0 komentarzy

Ostatnie posty

Zobacz wszystkie

Comments


bottom of page