Trump’s Net Approval Rating vs Stock Market (update)

Trump’s net approval rating fell from January through April, just reaching the troughs together with equity markets after the now-famous Liberation Day (April 2). However, Trump’s pivot allowed equity markets to rebound sharply off the April lows – see Figure 1.

Trump’s net approval rating reacted similarly, rising until June 7 (in step with the stock market). Nevertheless, while equity markets continued to climb, Trump’s support began to decline, hitting its lowest level of this term on July 22 (-10.3% – see Figure 1).

All else equal, rising equity markets should continue to boost Trump’s approval.

What drove the drop in support? Most notably Immigration topic (a 10-point decline from June 7 to July 22). Next was Inflation (-8.7 points; this likely also reflects, to some extent, Trump’s attacks on Powell), followed by Trade Policy (-6.2 points). The economy rating fell the least during this period – see details in Figure 2.

Conclusion? Net-net, Trump should keep “caring” for the markets … with his current overall low net approval rating, Trump cannot afford significant declines in equity markets…

Data source: natesilver.net. The approval metrics on that site are the average of the 10 most popular pollsters in the USA.