Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent’s '3-3-3' plan calls for a 3 million barrel increase in US oil production. But industry insiders are highly skeptical about whether that’s possible.
Exxon Mobil’s Upstream President Liam Mallon: “I think a radical change is unlikely because the vast majority, if not everybody, is primarily focused on the economics of what they’re doing (..) I don’t think we’re going to see anybody in the drill, baby, drill mode.”
The US is already producing a record 13.49 million bbl/day. See Figure 1. According to the EIA’s latest November STEO report, production will only increase to 13.66 in December 2025.
And who could potentially increase production by 3 million barrels (even within 30 days)? Try Saudi Arabia. Today it produces 9 million barrels, and has a spare capacity of 3 million – see Figure 2. Could Trump reach some agreement with MBS? A drop in oil prices would not only help fight inflation, but it could definitely affect the finances of Iran and Russia.
OPEC+ is still discussing postponing the production increase (reversing previous production cuts). And Saudi Arabia would certainly like to reverse its voluntary production cuts. In its latest report, Goldman Sachs wrote that Saudi Arabia is more likely to extend its production cuts until April 2025.
Figure 3 shows the oil production volumes of Russia, the US, and Saudi Arabia from 2007 to 2024.
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