Nvidia: A surprisingly good entry point !

Wczoraj kurs Nvidia wzrósł +2,34% po pozytywnej rekomendacji Morgan Stanley, który przesunął Nvidię na „top pick” pośród spółek „semis”.

Morgan Stanley:

“For the last two quarters NVIDIA has not moved while business has continued to strengthen – a function of concerns about the durability of growth. These concerns should turn to 2027 enthusiasm in the coming months. We see the stock at 18x CY27 EPS as a surprisingly good entry point.”

Figure 1 pokazuje jak reagował kurs po ogłoszeniu wyników w ostatnich 3 latach.

Figure 2 to dokładne dane la pierwszych 20 dni tradingowych, a Figure 3 pokazuje zaznaczone na czerwono dni, kiedy kurs Nvidia był niżej niż 6,7% w reakcji na ogłoszone wyniki (czyli niżej niż w dniu 2 marca 2026).

Morgan Stanley:

“There appears to be a cohort of investors who are positioning 2026 as the exit point for memory (…) The reason we named NVIDIA—not Micron—as our top pick is that investor sentiment toward NVIDIA is more negative than toward Micron.”

“This is by no means a negative call on MU.”

“Based on our checks, we continue to see a strong preference for NVIDIA in many cases—even in areas where competitors emphasize lower total cost of ownership (TCO). In addition, our checks suggest that the two largest ASIC users and the two potentially largest AMD users are each likely to grow their business with NVIDIA by 80%+ in CY26.”

“However, the product that every customer is most focused on—including ASIC and AMD users—is NVIDIA’s Rubin, which will ship in the second half. Customers will only be able to secure a portion of the volumes they want, so much of the competitive dynamic is still likely to be ‘Blackwell vs. competitors,’ and we expect Blackwell to hold up very well.”