Tesla is up 12% in after hours trading.
My key takeaways:
1) Strong growth in profitability, in particular Gross Margin ex-regulatory Credit, which increased to 17.1% in Q3 - see Figure 1… against Wall Street expectations of 14.9%.
Elon Musk: “In fact, I think if you look at, EV companies, worldwide to the best of my knowledge, no EV companies even profitable. And I'm not I to the best of my knowledge, there was no EV division of any company, of any existing auto company that is profitable”.

2) Strong outlook for Q4 2024 Total Deliveries. Tesla reported 463k total deliveries in Q3, but also mentioned that “Despite ongoing macroeconomic conditions, we expect to achieve slight growth in vehicle deliveries in 2024.”
So far in 2024 Total Deliveries are 1,294k (Q1 to Q3). In 2023 Total Deliveries were 1,806k – so implied Total Deliveries in Q4 would be at least 515k – which would be new all-time-high – see Figure 2.

And what about the 2025?
Elon Musk:
“So, regarding the vehicle business, we are still on-track to deliver more affordable models starting in the first half of 2025. This is I think probably people are wondering what they should assume for vehicle sales growth next year. And at the risk of taking a bit of risk here, I do want to give some rough estimate, which is I think it's 20% to 30% vehicle growth next year.”
3) If the outlook works out and Tesla returns to automotive sales growth, investors are not particularly bothered by the miss on Q3 2024 revenues. Q3 Revenues came in at $25.18 billion, compared to Wall Street’s expectations of $25.43 billion – see Figure 3.

Elon Musk:
“So in conclusion, Tesla is focused on building the future of energy, transport, robotics, and AI. And this is a time when others are just focused on managing around near term trends. We think what we're doing is the right approach. And, if we execute on our objectives, then I think we will. Tesla my prediction is Tesla will become the most valuable company in the world and probably by a long by a long shot.”

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